Tactical Warning : Chancellor Merkel and the German export
Chancellor Merkel told not to a EU-bond that will help the fight back the recession.
Here you can find an official document supplied by the German Government about export:
Here the top 20 world wide markets for Germany :
This is for 2011 and the situation from 2010 is changed as follow :
- China on 201o was N.7
- Italy on 2010 was N.5
-Russia was N. 13
- Tchez Rep was N.12
- Belgium N.7
- Japan was N.18
- Denmark was N.17
-Brasil wa N. 19, ( another confirm that Brasil start to get ” bearish”)
-Korea was N. 20
About the other BRICS , ( India and South Africa), the rankings are :
-India 2010 N. 21 , 2011 N.21
- South Africa 2010 N. 26, 2011 N. 24
About the “sicks of Europe” :
-Greece 2010 N, 33 , 2011 N. 38
-Portugal 2010 N. 24 ,2011 N. 31
If we aggregate the 20 Top Markets we have :
-The biggest world market is France, (EU), with 13% inside the top 20 markets.
- The EU represents 71% of the export and inside
-The the NON-EU countries represent 29% and inside it :
- The BRICS ,( in this case only China, Russia,Brasil), represent 14% of the export
-The USA alone represent 9% of the export
In other term for each Euro that Germany gains exporting to the Top 2o Markets we have the following situation :
- 71c are gained in the EU
- 29c with 3 of the BRICS
- 13c with France ,(EU)
- 9c in the USA
- 8c in China
- 7.8c in Italy,(EU)
- 4c in Spain
- 3.9c in Russia
- 1c in Brazil
How unwise is Chancellor´s Merkel decision does not need any comment.
Maybe she thinks to win the 2013 election but if the Germany will reduce the export she will lose her job.
Not mention how this will affect the supposed “Super Deutschland” that thanks to Agenda 2010 can growth only if exports.
We have only a comment : it is not Berlin strong but the others, ( Roma,Madrid etc.), weak.
For example, (I) :
- in Italy after the local elections on May we have that all the national parties are de facto not national in the sense that they need to develop electoral tickets with he local new political forces,( Civic Lists), to be able to win and to win only inside a coalition.At the same time the landscape is so fragile that these local forces need to be allied with the ”national” one in order to generate a ticket to be able to have a national voice, ( by the way this is because Berlusconi wants to create a network of Civic Lists)
- in Spain the government is fragile
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Note :
(I) The rating index : is the end of the SA´s soft power ? http://westphaliaxxi.com/2012/06/27/the-rating-index-is-the-end-of-the-sa%C2%B4s-soft-power-14/
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