WorldPolitics: Scenario 2012-2013

Content
Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………………………..4
1. The Fiscal Compact: The Centre of Gravity in the new EU?…………………………………8
2. Germany: Hegemonic v. Eurosceptic ……………………………………………………………….12
3. Central Europe: Between Centre and Periphery ………………………………………………..16
4. EU and Turkey: The Role of Cyprus Presidency ………………………………………………..20
5. The EU-China Partnership: The Bride for Sale Scenario? …………………………………..23
6. America after the Election: Grand Strategies v. Structures and Resources ……………28
7. Iran: The Endless Crisis? …………………………………………………………………………………32
8. Bahrain: The Geopolitics of Upheaval ……………………………………………………………..36
9. Afghanistan: Retalibanization or Civil War? …………………………………………………….40
10. Asia-Pacific Area: Strains and Hopes ………………………………………………………………43
11. The Presidential Election in Russia: Three Variations ………………………………………47download at http://www.iir.cz/upload/Scenare/Scenarios_12-13.pdf


©2012 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED THE AUTHOR(S) AND THE PUBLISHERby Centre for International Security

Ondřej Ditrych, editor
Vít Beneš
Mitchell A. Belfer
Mats Braun
Jan Eichler
Rudolf Fürst
Vladimír Handl
Nik
 Hynek
Michal Kořan
Petr Kratochvíl
Lucia Najšlová
Vít Střítecký
Tomáš Weiss
Institute of Internationa Reations, Nerudova 3, 118 50 Prague 1
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