Sarkozy Vs Hollande: The Clash of Two Cultures by Dominique Moisi
I think five years ago, Chatham House did invite me, more or less the
same time, on the eve of the French elections. And I think my presentation
was about an explanation of the reasons why Nicolas Sarkozy was going to
be the next president of France. Today, I think my presentation is probably
going to be about the reverse – why is Nicolas Sarkozy about to be defeated
in the upcoming elections? I was of course very daring last time. I think I’m
even more daring today because to announce that less than one week before
the first ballot and less than three weeks before the second ballot, when one
knows that Nicloas Sarkozy is the artist of French politics, is to take a huge
risk. Nevertheless, I think one has to take risks in life. So I – my presentation
will be in two parts. Why is Nicolas Sarkozy about to be defeated? And the
second part: what would an Hollande presidency mean for France and for
Europe?
Today, it’s difficult to be an incumbent in a democratic society. You quoted
Russia, but I’m not absolutely sure Russia is on par with truly democratic
systems. Unemployment in a country like France is close to 10%. It’s difficult
to be re-elected with something like 10% unemployment. The rate of approval
of Nicolas Sarkozy is the lowest of any president of the Fifth Republic. Only
36% of the French have a positive vision of him. I must remind you that last
time an incumbent president was defeated, 1981, Valéry Giscard d’Estaing
had a 40% rate of approval. If Nicolas Sarkozy was to be re-elected, it would
be an absolute first in the history of the Fifth Republic in the sense that it
would be the first time the representative of the same political party would
win, for the fourth consecutive time, an election. 1995: Chirac. 2002: Chirac
again. 2007: Sarkozy. 2012 – it’s simply never happened in the history of the
Fifth Republic that someone should win a fourth consecutive mandate for his
political affiliation. You can only win two mandates in the French political
system.
But forget those structural factors, those historical stakes. The defeat of
Nicolas Sarkozy, if it does take place, is not based on rationality. It’s not
based on a judgement of his record, but based on a rejection of his person.
It’s totally emotional. To some extent, it is totally unfair and irrational. But
Nicolas Sarkozy has violated fundamental unwritten rules of the French
political system. You reminded us that the president of France is very
important. Yes, he’s the most important figure of any democratic society. He’s
the equivalent of being the queen of England and the prime minister of
England at the same time. And I would say that as prime minister of England,
the record of Nicolas Sarkozy is quite good. On balance, he faced a terrible
crisis, resisted with energy and determination, tried to start reform and
implemented some of them in the field of education and retirement age, was
daring in his foreign policy – and I would say successful when it comes to the
Ivory Coast and even more so Libya. I mean, one could assume that Gaddafi
might still be in power without the determination of Nicolas Sarkozy
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