China GDP to Equal that of US by 2026 by Prof Lawrence Lau
East Asian GDP to Take Up 40 Per Cent of Global Total in 15 Years
China’s GDP will be on a par with the United States in just 15 years, according to Lawrence Lau Juen-yee, Ralph and Claire Landau Professor of Economics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, speaking recently with the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC).
“Over the last 30 years, the economic centre of gravity of the world has been shifting,” Professor Lau told the HKTDC’s webcasting service in a December interview.
“That’s just a matter of fact. I think in another 15 years, Chinese GDP will be the same as US GDP. And the other East Asian economies will continue to grow, so I think that East Asia, in another 15 years, will account for 40 per cent of the world’s GDP.”
Professor Lau, who is also Chairman of CIC International (Hong Kong) Co Ltd and a non-official member of the Hong Kong Government’s Executive Council, will speak at the Asian Financial Forum (AFF) in Hong Kong later this month. He will lead a panel exploring Chinese mainland opportunities, which will include discussion of China’s 12th Five-Year Plan and opportunities created by the mainland’s rapid urbanisation.
Renminbi on the Rise
Professor Lau also predicts that usage of the renminbi is set to rise – not just in Hong Kong, but as an attractive alternative for the region as a whole. “But you ask people in Hong Kong, whether they are willing to accept the renminbi, whether they’re willing to hold renminbi assets, [they are] perfectly willing. That is rising,” he said. “If you ask a lot of people in Southeast Asia to choose between the US dollar and renminbi, many would say, ‘I really have enough dollars, I’d much rather take renminbi.’ So it’s really a matter of how well it’s accepted as a medium of exchange.”
Asian Financial Forum