Art .5 , the risk of war between NATO and Syria by Paolo Dealberti
This morning we have published a Tactical Warning about the deployment of a US Navy nuclear carrier in front of the coasts of Syria.
Among others ,(I), it was wrote:
“Tactical Warning Military 1 : We do not think to an action at least in the next 7-10 days.
Tactical Warning Military 2 : but there is the option that some forces inside the regime want to drill this to weaken Assad ,(IV), and kill some Turkish as well as to make some raids inside Turkey against the refugee camp only to act as ” agent provocateur” and force Assad to resign and shift the power to his brother.This will be made to try to increase the pressure creating some acceleration ,( due to the provocation), on what told at point 1 “
Thanks to the Art. 5 of the NATO if a member of the alliance is attacked the whole alliance reacts to defend. Turkey is a member of the alliance.
This morning the Turkish Foreign Minister stated that Syria is beyond any limit of tolerance due the brutal repression.
On may 6, 2001 ,(II),we have informed about strong struggles inside the leaderships of Iran and Syria.
Now we draw a possible scenario.
A strong Turkish retaliation , even without the risk of a NATO support but with the intelligence /counter-electronics help from the USA and Israel, will force changes either in :
- and inside the Iranian proxy clients Hezbollah and Hamas
We can think that factions against Assad and Ahmadinejad could forge an alliance. They can create some incidents with Turkey.
For example :
- to kill others Turkish citizens in Syria
- to attack the embassy in Damascus during a manifestation
- to penetrate in the Turkish territory to attack either the refugee and/or Turkish targets
The consequent pressure from Ankara will change the equilibrium inside the two regimes.
This could force Assad to shift the power to his norther and brother -in-law.
In Iran will weaken Ahmadinejad.
Consequently for the next months also Hezbollah and Hamas will be weaken because their supporter ,(Iran),and its proxy client , ( Syria) , will be engulfed in the internal struggle.
We do not think that these provocations will cause a war between Turkey and Syria as retaliation and then, consequently, the NATO will be involved because of the Art. 5.
Turkey could retaliate and its military power can do it without fearing a Syrian reaction. This retaliation will not involve the NATO but will be supported by the counter-electronics capabilities of the US Navy Ronald Reagan´s battle group as well as from these of Israel. Additionally the USA will supply intelligence thanks to satellites and echelon. The combined action of these counter-measures will blind the Syrian army and let the Turkish to implement a laser focused strike without any lost of pilots and /or commandos.
This military pressure will be used by the Assad and Ahmadinejad ´s internal enemies to remove the first and to weaken the last and in this case the next time will be to remove the Iranian Premier in the coming months.
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