Tactical Warning : South Asia
The Vietnamese navy will make naval maneuvers in a “live drill “ condition. This is an operative status that allows the ships to react in case of provocation. The provocation can come from China.
We can learn some lessons :
1) It confirms the need of a regional body like the NATO to balance internal tensions
2) It shows that Vietnam is not impressed by Chinese military power, ( we shortly remember that in 1977 China lost a short war against Vietnam)
3) The BRICS cannot help Beijing and to be a member of the so-called and supposed “alternative G5” , (I),does not impress Vietnam
4) The US Nvy is and will be for many years the real peace keeper in the region ( and this is a benefit also for China)
Risk Management 1 : Even is we will assist to some escalation that will involve the use of live ammunitions between the Chinese and the Vietnamese navies as well as any other kind of “incidents” we do not think that this will degenerate into a war.
Both Vietnam and China do not want and need it.
Risk Managememnt 2 : The only real risk is that if there is that in case of some limited clashes some cargos will reach their harbors with some days of delay and this will not affect just-in-time supply chain.
Prosumerzen Intelligence Team