Germany and the EU : who needs whom ?

(Note : here the 2nd part about France,Germany, the UK and the EU : http://prosumerzen.net/2011/05/23/germanyfrancethe-uk-and-the-eu-who-needs-whom/ )

Yesterday Chancellor Merkel has „menaced“ the EU but, unlucky for Berlin, Germany is not in the situation to menace someone.
We use facts to evaluate it and for facts we mean the official German statistics plus IMF data ,(Official Statistics Import/export 2010 : http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/DE/Navigation/Statistiken/Aussenhandel/Handelspartner/Handelspartner.psml )

Political fact 1 : on 12.5.2011 the Visegrad Group ,( V4),composed by Poland , Slovakia , Hungary, Czech Rep.), has formed the 1st INDIPENDENT either from the EU and from the NATO battle group in Europe, (I). The militarization of hearth Europe is leaded by Poland a land trapped between the Russian strategy and the German visions of power.

Berlin must accept it and can do nothing to change it.

Political fact 2 : the NATO operation under the UN Resolution 1973 will be remembered ,(at least in Europe),more for the 1st episode of a contrast between Berlin and Paris about international politics and defense than for the change of regime in Libya. The political value is that the NATO/EU goes ahead WITHOUT & DESPITE Germany.

Again : Berlin must accept it and can do nothing to change it.

Economic fact 1 : Germany needs the so –called financially and economically not so well governed countries. If we analyze the official German statistics about the export 2010 we find some “surprises” :

Surprise N.1 : Italy with 58 .476 million € is the 5th world market for Germany and China with 53 636,4 is the 7th market

Surprise N 2. : even Austria is bigger than China as export market

Surprise N.3 : if you consider the three biggest BRICS ,(China, Brazil, Russia),the German COMULATIVE export to them is like the export to France.

Surprise N. 4 : among the top 30 Markets 26 are in the EU

001 Frankreich 90 694,4
003 Niederlande 63 235,2
005 Italien 58 476,8
006 Österreich 53 721,1
008 Belgien 46 406,7
010 Polen 38 053,3
011 Spanien 34 380,8
012 Tschechische Republik 26 967,6
014 Schweden 19 634,1
016 Ungarn 14 265,3
017 Dänemark 14 166,6
022 Slowakei 8 796,7
024 Portugal 7 842,0
025 Finnland 7 812,5
028 Rumänien 7 431,9
033 Griechenland 5 935,3
036 Luxemburg 5 758,5
040 Irland 4 176,3
042 Slowenien 3 672,0
047 Bulgarien 2 196,1
052 Litauen 1 807,6
062 Estland 1 191,8
067 Lettland 988,2
112 Gibraltar ( UK Territory ) 125,4
150 Französisch-Polynesien ( French Territory ) 25,9
151 Niederländische Antillen ( Dutch territory) 25,7
187 Französische Südgebiete ( French territory) 4,8

It seems that Chancellor Markel needs these markets.

Again : Berlin must accept it and can do nothing to change it.

Economic fact 2 : let´s consider a privileged relation “beyond “ the EU with the BRICS.

Let´s analyze the statistics about the Germany export to the BRICS :

007 Volksrepublik China 53 636,4
013 Russische Föderation 26 360,9
019 Brasilien 10 401,2
021 Indien 9 253,5
026 Südafrika 7 678,3

Total : 107.330,30 million € or if you prefer less than France plus Sweden or less than Italy plus Austria… .
Total EU : 524.084,83 millions € or if you prefer 4,8 times the BRICS.
Again : Berlin must accept it and can do nothing to change it.
And in this case the only question is : can Germany afford to lose the EU to gain the BRICS ?

Economic fact 3 : even if we consider Turkey, Venezuela and Iran , ( a supposed BRICSTIV),the situation does not change a lot.
Together Ankara,Teheran and Caracas , (TIV),are the following markets for Berlin :

015 Türkei 16 192,0
041 Islamische Republik Iran 3 804,0
075 Venezuela 709,1

Total : 20.705,10 millions € almost like Sweden ,( or 4 times Greece).

It means BRICS + TIV = 128.035,40 Millions € or around 1 /4 of the EU.
Again : Berlin must accept it and can do nothing to change it.
And in this case the only question is : can Germany afford to lose the EU to gain the BRICS + TIV?

Economic fact 4 : The EU with its 27 economies is the biggest economy in the world .

According to the IMF, (2010) :

European Union with Germany 16,282,230

United States 14,657,800

European Union without Germany 12.966.587

People’s Republic of China 5,878,257
Japan 5,458,872

Even if Germany will leave the EU this will not affect its world leading role.

Economically the EU eill be the 2nd world powerhouse.
And even if outside of the EU Berlin cannot afford to change the terms of free trade and to lose its 26 top markets in the world…. .

Militarily the countries able to supply an European nuclear shields are France and the UK as well us two of the three countries in the world,( the 3rd is the USA), with a real capability in term of worldwide power projection and on term of “deep blue waters” operation to keep open and save maritime trading lines .

Politically in the international arena Berlin is palying an acitve role only in the Isreal-Palestine negotiations and this only and only becuase member of the EU.

Last but not least Germany consider as an important asset of its international political power the preferential link with Russia. The question is only one : does will Moscow care so much of Berlin if Germany is not in the EU ?

Again : Berlin must accept it and can do nothing to change it.

Political and economic realities, ( facts not rhetoric),show that Berlin is in the frustrating position to see that Europe ,( V4 and NATO /EU),goes ahead without and despite its desiderata and from an economical point of view if Italy imports more than China or if Sweden like Turkey plus Iran and Venezuela there is not a lot of room to menace to “be tired of this Europe”.

Paolo Dealberti

Note : About the V4 : http://prosumerzen.net/2011/05/17/v4-%e2%80%a6an-indipendent-army-for-europe-at-least-for-a-part-of-it%e2%80%a6/