Pakistan and China
According to Prof. Christine Fair ,(I), Pakistan has lost since 9/11 around 45.000 people ,(civilians, soldiers, policemen). On average 12 victims each day in the last 10 years.
This is like a war. It is reasonable to understand that Islamabad faces a strong internal pressure. This expalins the actual tensions after the OBL´sdeath.
Someone argues that Pakistan can be lose to China and that Beijing can be the preferential partner, or ally of the Country.
If this happens China will be a major player in Central Asia increasing the power that it has due to his commercial links and as member of the Shangai Cooperation Group.
Than Islamabad can supply bases for the Chinese Navy inside its strategy of “ pearls chain” in the Pacific Ocean and this can reduce the lack of “deep blue waters „capability, (and consequently to reduce the dependence from the Washington’s ”good will” to have safe sea lines to import/export.) .
Last but not least Beijing will play an important role inside the so called “Islamabad Card” affecting the equilibrium in the Gulf region and becoming a key player between Riyadh and Teheran.
All it seems interesting for Beijing but we think that this will not happen and for the following reason:this will be the end of the so-called “intent of powers” described as the BRICS. We are not used to give to them such credit and we are sure that too many are making an over esteem of the BRICS´s real power, (II),but in any case if Beijing will be the “preferential link” of Islamabad it will be the end of the BRICS.
I) India cannot accept this preferential link and the related shift of power in its status. New Delhi is a competitor for Beijing and there are still, silent ,unsolved territorial disputes.
II) Russia cannot accept that Beijing can play a bigger role either inside the Shangai Group and in Central Asia because of the backbone of its alliance with Islamabad
These reasons tell us that it is not realistic to think that Washington will lose Islamabad to Beijing. If this will happens it will be for other reasons.
If … .
(I) Al Jahzera News 04-05-2011