Colonel Gadhafi´s 14 options in Libya ,( pardon Tripolitania and Cyrenaica… )
He will be judged on his actions … and now we try to imagine his actions or better to say his options.
Option 1 ) Weapons to his citizens in Tripolitania against those in Cyrenaica
Be aware to avoid a tragic misunderstanding N.1 : when he says “his citizens /Libyans” he is NOT at all talking about the Libyans BUT only about his tribe and allied tribes ,(I).
Now let´s focus on the tragic misunderstanding N.2 : he knows as well as the UN Troops that no one will invade Libya. This is not in the Resolution 1973, ( to change the regime ,(II)).
But something else is possible. As “ option N. 6 “ ,(III), to send UN Troops ,( blue helmets), as buffer force at the border of the 2 Libyas ,(IV) : Tripolitania and Cyrenaica ,(V).
On practical terms we have not to consider this action as the menace to create an Iraq-style situation where ten thousands of people stolen /have weapons and it creates the flourishing of militias and gunned groups without any control
Not at all !
Gadhafi is SIMPLY and ONLY arming his tribe and the allied tribes to strength them against the forces of the National Transitional Council.´, (VI), headquartered in Cyrenaica ,( East Libya)
To better clarify it and once for all : Gadhafi is arming the tribes in Tripolitania , (West Libya), against those in Cyrenaica ,( East Libya) .
Tripolitania and Cyrenaica here is the key to understand the most…if not all ,( see also Option 7) .
In the territory that we describe as Libya Colonel Gadhafi run the regime that control the western region ,(Tripolitania), and the National Transitional Council the eastern region ,(Cyrenaica).
Gadhafi is arming “Tripolitanians “ against “ Cyernaicans” .
But this will be a boomerang. The regime trusts more mercenaries than his own people and if the UN Troops will be deployed to ratify the division of the country Gadhafi will face the uncomfortable situation of controlling ten thousands of gunned men that can revolt against him.
Not Iraq but the internal divisions and the risk of a mortal boomerang for the regime is the key to understand it.
IF Gadhafi will do it…if… .
He does not need to do it because the rebels are not a military force able to challenge him and to conquest Tripoli. They can only defend the east and this works only and only if the UN No-fly Zone protects them , ( something like the Kurds in north Iraq during Saddam Hussein . They were capable to build a de facto land in northern Iraq thanks to 12 years of protection supplied by the UN No-fly Zone ).
And ,as told ,he does not want to take the risk to supply arms to potential dissidents inside his tribe. And also to have enemies in the region because in this case the potential turbulence will force countries like Tunisia to react in some way, ( for example offering safe hubs to armed dissidents).
The most realistic thing is a propagandistic supply of weapons in some strees and to heavy controlled supporters for the international press and televisions … . In other words no more and not less than propaganda.
Option 2) To use his financial power
The goal is to buy or influence consensus .
Here we have three dimensions :
a) Charity and Foundations : extremely active in Africa
b) SWF : here Gadhafi has not room to act and this according to the Art. 20 of the Resolution, (VII). Logically that has value only and only for the Countries that will implement it. Where not the SWF will play a role. In the Countries where the Resolution is implemented de jure the regime has not any more control on the assets owned by the SWF and this till a resolution of the crisis.
c) SWF and “private companies” : a way to try to by-pass the financial embargo it will be that to supply part of the SWF money to “private entities” ,( using secretive offshore locations),and to act using them ,(VIII). This also linked with the Organized Crime in order to make money laundering,( see Opt. 6)
Option 3) To Finance insurrections and terrorism
From Caledonia to the FANC in Colombia to … .
And about terrorism starting from the Sahel ,( part of the Greater Middle East).
Option 4 ) Illegal Immigrants
To allow the sending of illegal immigrants .
This to :
a) Disturb the military actions
b) Use them as human shield in harbors
c) Transport commandos ,(IX),that will operate with the logistic support of local terrorists or criminals ,( see Opt. 5)
d) Increase links with the Organized Crime, ( OC),(see Opt. 5)
Option 5) Military strike against Italy
Gadhafi can send again a SCUD against Lampedusa as he did more than a quarter of century ago. But this time the reaction will be devastating and we consider it as not probable. If he will do it the lunch will be a propagandistic tool and will stop a lot before of Lampedusa… .
Option 6 ) Links with the Organized Crime
The sending of illegal immigrants will strength his relations and this will benefit both side.
From the OC ´s perspective :
a) The lucrative business of the illegal sending
b) The option to use his SFW as well as Charities to make money laundering
About this point we must be clear : investments like that in FIAT or Unicredit are not at all “money laundering”. This risk exists only and only where the Resolution 1973,(Art. 20),will have only a “formal” application and this is not the case in Italy as well as not in others Countries, ( France, UK,USA,Qatar,Spain,Denmark,Canada…), actively involved in the military and political effort under the UN mandate.
From the regime´s perspective :
a) To have “mercenaries”,(X)
b) To have a worldwide network to use for intimidations as well as for terrorism
Option 7 ) To kill opponents to avoid their back
Tripoli has a long record of opponents killed around the world. It is possible that the regime will kill others to avoid that they can back either in Cyrenaica but also in… Tripolitania.
Option 8 ) Libya exists not anymore and we have the Republic of Tripolitania and the Republic of Cyrenaica.
Gadhafi could chose to divide the Country. It will be easy :
a) Two antagonist groups of tribes
b) Oil and gas fields as well as the hub to exports can be easily divided,(XI)
c) About the financial power. The Countries that are respecting the Art. 20 of the Resolution 1973 will give back the control of the SWF to Benghazi and the others to Tripoli and that will dived the controlled assets
Option 9 ) Human shield
A beloved solutions by dictators and it can be done in two ways :
a) Members of rival tribes in the west or get prisoners in the east
b) Foreigners and this amplifies the worldwide impact. How ? Let´s imagine that Chinese or Philippines or Arab workers are killed in a strike… .
This is crime against the humanity for the Geneva Convention.
Option 10 ) Tribal brotherhood
Libya has around 164 tribal groups even if the biggest are around 30. Some of them are spread all over the north Africa.
Gadhafi can think to use this brotherhood ,( plus money ,see Opt.2), to create trouble in the region.
Option 11 ) To “manipulate “ the Resolution 1973
The regime did it , ( to declare a cease fire that itself has NEVER respected), and is doing it, ( to ask for an emergency meeting of the UN Council).
It is only propaganda to try to show that they are acting under the law and only to protect Libya , pardon Tripolitania.
Option 12) To call for the African help, ( see also option 2.a)
Colonel Gadhafi paid a fortune to have the title of “ King of the African Kings”. It tells a lot either of his vision of the reality and of his respect for Africans.
In any case he will try to use his influence, especially in the Sahel region of the Greater Middle East, to gain some consensus or at least momentum.
Option 13 ) Islam ,(XII)
We hear now sentences like “ Christian colonialism against Islam and its champion Libya” or words like “crusades”.
Again this is part of his effort either to concern the west and to try to gain some momentum ,support ,(not only in the Arab world but as well as in the western by the till now “silent voices”). About it see also Opt. 8b.
And about the real value of this menace it is to wonder if Al Qaeda is still the menace that a lot think is or if we are over evaluating this organization ,(XIII).
Islam is the respected belief of more than a billion of people and we find outrageous that someone as Gadhafi even mention this holy word. Here we magnify our respect for this religion and that we are aware of the deep and total distinction between the Holy Koran and the actions of fanatics that are abusing and wrongly interpreting the words of the Holy Prophet Mohamed, ( can Allah bless His name).
Option 14 ) To surge as champion of the Jasmine Revolution
We can wait for the utilization of an additional propagandistic tool : that to describe himself as ” the cahmpion” of the Jasmine Revolution.
People in Yemen,Bahrain.Sirya,Dubai,Egypt,Algeria,Tunisia,Jordan,Iran know that he ordered to kill civilians and that cannot be a champion of the revolution !
A lot of options … Gadhafi will be judged on his actions …. .
Post Scriptum: The Republic of Tripolitania and the Republic of Cyrenaica,(XIV) ?
With the UN buffer force in the middle..It is less unrealistic and this will create a trend in the whole Greater Middle east putting back the supremacy of the tribal factor ,( we call it “ The Great X”), among and above others ,(XV).
From a military point of view :
a) The Rebels have not the structure to win against the Gadhafi forces and they can survive only and only if protected by the No-fly Zone, ( again we focus your attention to the similarity with the Kurds in Iraq under Hussein and the NFZ for 12 years)
b) The Rebels force are the consequence of the defections of military and security forces in the east, ( again the tribal factor as key element)
c) The pro Gadhafi forces ,( western tribes) for the moment are loyal to the Colonel ,(even if trusts more his mercenaries ).
From a political point of view it is unclear how long the “internal peace” between Gogha and Abdel-Jalil will last and it is all to understand and evaluate the potential and possible role as outsider of the former Interior Minister and now commander of the army Gen. Abdel Fattah Younis, (XVI).
Gadhafi also will face turbulent times in Tripolitania and it is unclear of his son Seif can replace him or it will be a fight with his brother Motasem ,(XIV). Additionally among his tribe we find other leading figures and one of them is Moussa Kussa ,( the head of the intelligence) ,(XVII).
(I) The Great X , (23-2-2011) :
(II) UN Resolution 1973 ( integral text):
(III) 4+1 Options to stop Gadhafi :
(IV) 2 Libyas , (3-3-2011):
(V) Even if the wst ad the east of Libya have more than 2 regions we “categorize” the situation using the name of the two main regions.
(VI) We must keep in mind a strategic element : for long time no one has a clear idea with whom to talk inside the rebels. A short history :
Feb. 26th former Libyan Justice Minister Mustafa Abdel-Jalil, who defected from the was the 1st to declare the establishment of a “transitional government” with the ( unrealistic) goal to give way to elections in three months
Feb.27th the Benghazi based lawyer Dr. Abdel-Hafidh Ghoga held a news conference to refute his claims. Ghoga pronounced himself to be the spokesman of the new council and denied that it resembled a transitional government, adding that even if it did, Abdel-Jalil would not be in charge
( an encouraging start and it provided an idea of the sort of internal , tribal rivalries that exist in Libya )
Mar.6th the personal and regional rivalry among Ghoga and Abdel-Jalil are settled and the Council started to work. This Council declares that it derives its legitimacy from the series of city councils, (including Misurata, Zentan, Zawiya, Zouara, Nalut, Jabal Gharbi, Ghat and Kufra), that have been running the affairs of the east since the February uprising that turned all of eastern Libya into rebel-held territory. Again : the Tribal factor as key.
Marc. 10th France recognizes the Transational Government ,(composed by 31 members),after the trip of Mahmoud Jebril, an ally of Abdel-Jalil, and de facto Foreign Minister Ali al-Essawi.
But it is to test if the unity of the rebels will survive the defeat of Gadhafi in term to create to create its own state in eastern Libya….keep in mind that !
(VII) ibidem II
(VIII) This way to act for a SWF is not new but not on this scale.
(IX) we do not agree with whom are so sure that terrorists and/or commando cannot infiltrate as illegal immigrants because the travel is too risky with the ships that normally are used….well let us to say that there is ship and ship… .
(X) About this element the mastermind behind the initial success of the pro-Gadhafi forces is the Algerian Colonel Djamal Bouzghaia , ( member of the Algeri´s intelligence Istakhbrat Al Amna). According to some rumors inside the intelligence community he traded the skids forces of the Presidential Guard former Tunisian President Ben Ali as mercenaries and among them the snipers that shot against civilians.
(XI) ibidem IV
(XIII)For the Italian Minister of Defense Ingazio La Russa it will be the Caliphate of Cyrenaica
(XII) ibidem IV
(XIII) Iran ¿ Al Qaeda ? ,(18-3-11):
(XIV) ibidem VI
(XV) The Libyan Tienamen ,(22-2-2011) :
(XVI) ibidem XV
(XVII) Professor Alexander Adlez , ( Cdans l´arir /France 5 21-3-11),mentioned that it could be also possible that Gadhafi could lose his life due to some “accident” caused by his security services…